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☆ Uncertainty around Bank of Japan's next moves after rate rise, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUncertainty around Bank of Japan's next moves after rate rise, analyst saysSalman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, discusses the Bank of Japan's raising of interest rates for the first time since 2007, and what it means for the yen and equities.

Persons: Salman Ahmed Organizations: of Japan's, Fidelity International, Bank of

☆ The Fed will probably start rate cuts in June, investment management firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will probably start rate cuts in June, investment management firm saysSalman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, says March would be "very early."

Persons: Salman Ahmed Organizations: Fidelity International

☆ Don't trust the stock market rally, strategist warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON — Stocks are heading for a bumper week, but there are many reasons to be wary, one strategist warned on Friday. "In short, we don't believe this rally," Salman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." "We had a tough later part of summer, there was focus on tightening of financial conditions, what was coming from the key central banks." The pan-European Stoxx 600 index is on course for its best weekly performance since late March, according to LSEG data. That comes off the back of a dire October, which was its worst month of the year, and losses in August and September.

Persons: Salman Ahmed, CNBC's, Ahmed Organizations: Fidelity International Locations: impinge

☆ Concept of a U.S. soft landing is dead, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConcept of a U.S. soft landing is dead, strategist saysSalman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, explains why the U.S. economy is not heading for a "landing" of any kind.

Persons: Salman Ahmed Organizations: Fidelity International Locations: U.S

☆ Markets in Q3: Gains, pains and oil reigns
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery are seen just after sunset, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. Gold has lost its shine too meaning that only oil and gas, cash and the dollar have proved reliably profitable. “If you are going above $100 a barrel and staying there you are starting to create that inflation narrative again”. Athens’ main stock market is up 26.5% this year, even if it is down 11% since July. “The comforting news for Q4 though is that we should be close to peak (global) interest rates,” Metcalfe said.

Persons: Christian Hartmann, It’s, Salman Ahmed, Japan’s, ”, Robert Alster, El Salvador’s, Tayyip Erdogan’s, Argentina’s, Michael Metcalfe, ” Metcalfe Organizations: REUTERS, Christian, Federal Reserve &, Macro, Deutsche Bank, Management, Russia, U.S, Athens ’, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Street Global Markets, Indicators Locations: Paris, France, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Ukraine, Greece, Athens, Pakistan, Britain’s, Turkey, Nigeria, Colombia, Mexico, U.S, Poland, Ecuador, Japan

☆ One economist still feels a recession is looming — because corporate borrowing costs could shoot up, thanks to rising interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Fidelity International's Salman Ahmed is predicting a recession on the back of high interest rates, per Bloomberg. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe increased cost of borrowing due to higher interest rates means companies may not be able to invest in growth. Consumer spending also typically falls when interest rates rise. By the end of 2008, its benchmark interest rate — the Fed Funds Rate was close to 0%. The Fed has been hiking interest rates relentlessly since March 2022 to combat red-hot inflation as the pandemic receded.

Persons: Salman Ahmed, Ahmed, Fidelity's Ahmed —, —, Ahmed isn't, David Rosenberg Organizations: Fidelity, Bloomberg, Service, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Europe's weaker economy limits fallout of US bond rout
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Last week, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields touched their highest relative to Germany's since December. For rate-sensitive short-dated German bond yields yields are even down 17 bps in August as weak data has raised expectations of a European Central Bank rate hike pause in September. SPILLOVERBofA, Goldman Sachs and Barclays expect Treasury yields to end the year slightly below current levels. Barclays's Khanna estimates German bond yields would have been 50-60 bps lower had they only been driven by domestic factors. The spillover from higher Treasury yields is more challenging elsewhere.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Mauro Valle, Valle, Salman Ahmed, Rohan Khanna, Fitch, Mondher, SPILLOVER BofA, Goldman Sachs, Jackson, Barclays's Khanna, Frederik Ducrozet, Ataru Okumura, Yoruk, Chiara Elisei, Junko Fujita, Kevin Buckland, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: REUTERS, Generali Investment Partners, European Central Bank, Fidelity International, U.S, Fitch, AAA, Vontel Asset Management, Barclays, Treasury, Federal Reserve, ECB, Pictet Wealth Management, of Japan, Nikko Securities, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, Europe, Germany, Britain, Germany's, It's, Italy, France, Japan, Amsterdam, London, Tokyo

☆ The Full Guest List for Biden’s State Dinner With Modi
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Chris Cameron | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

More than 380 guests were invited to the state dinner President Biden hosted for Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India on Thursday night, a list that included government officials, business leaders, star athletes, a renowned violinist, a Hollywood director, the son of a civil rights icon, fashion designers and prominent Indian Americans. Here is the entire list of invitees provided by the White House. THE PRESIDENT AND DR. BIDENHIS EXCELLENCY NARENDRA MODI, PRIME MINISTER OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDIAHuma Abedin and Heba AbedinReem Acra and Dr. Nicolas TabbalMala Adiga, director of policy and projects for the first lady, and Charles BiroRevathi Advaithi and Jeevan MulgundSalman Ahmed, director of the policy planning staff for the State Department, and Cat Davis Ahmed

Persons: Biden, Narendra Modi, NARENDRA MODI, Acra, Nicolas Tabbal Mala Adiga, Charles Biro Revathi Advaithi, Jeevan Mulgund Salman Ahmed, Cat Davis Ahmed Organizations: India, Indian, White, DR, BIDEN, OF THE, OF INDIA, State Department Locations: Hollywood

☆ Fidelity International turns to defensive strategy ahead of potential 2023 recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFidelity International turns to defensive strategy ahead of potential 2023 recessionSalman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, says the investor has turned more defensive ahead of a potential recession later this year and concerns over company valuations.

Persons: Salman Ahmed Organizations: Fidelity International

ECB chief Christine Lagarde said the central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro was not pausing. "This is a very restrictive policy and it will turn into credit tightening and that will bring a recession." The ECB has now increased its key deposit rate by some 375 bps since last July, from -0.5%. U.S. rates have jumped 500 bps, with the Federal Reserve hiking again on Wednesday while opening the door to a pause. Gareth Rudd, a European equity fund manager at Chelverton Asset Management, said he was negative on European bank stocks because regulators will want them to conserve capital instead of paying dividends.

☆ The credit crunch is here and it could cripple the economy. Here's what Larry Summers, Nouriel Roubini and 7 other experts have said on the emerging threat.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Latest bank lending data suggests the credit crunch "has already started," according to Morgan Stanley strategists. Here's a selection of recent warnings on the emerging threat from experts including Larry Summers, David Solomon, Mike Wilson, Nouriel Roubini and Bill Gross. Apollo Asset Management's Jim Zelter told Bloomberg "it's not a credit crunch" but rather a "transition period" as markets face higher debt costs. "That credit crunch is going to make the likelihood of a recession — a hard landing — much greater than before. "Whether this qualifies as a full-blown 'credit crunch' remains to be seen.

When bond yields fall, their price rises. But asset managers that run large government bond portfolios still expect bond yields to rise and say they are selling into the rally, expecting the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve stay hawkish. Legal and General Investment Management (LGIM), the UK-based $1.6 trillion asset manager, is also reducing its exposure to government bonds, taking profits following the bond rally. As selling gripped bank shares on Wednesday, money market pricing suggested traders were leaning towards a 25 basis-point Fed rate increase next week. "We expect rates to rise," agreed Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at $1.1 trillion U.S. asset manager Nuveen.

☆ Signals coming from bond market at odds with what's happening with stock market: Strategist
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSignals coming from bond market at odds with what's happening with stock market: Strategist"This tightening was done on planet earth, not on planet mars," and it will therefore affect the economy, says Salman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International.

The central bank lifted its main funds rate by 25 bps to its highest since 2007 as it continued its fight against inflation. Yet the S&P 500 (.SPX) hit a five-month high, as traders focused resolutely on the idea that the world's most influential central bank would change course soon. Government bond markets meanwhile continued to price in rate cuts by year-end as the economic cycle turns. Over in Europe, the European Central Bank delivered a hefty 50 bps hike on Thursday and promised more of the same for March and beyond. "In terms of the impact of (central bank) hawkishness on markets," he added, "this has significantly softened."

☆ Markets need to remember rate hikes are a 'test match not T20,' says strategist
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets need to remember rate hikes are a 'test match not T20,' says strategistA clamor for interest rate cuts in the second half of 2023 has become a point of contention between markets and the Federal Reserve, says Salman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International.

☆ The Fed 'pivot' is dead, says strategist, who shares where to invest right now
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"The concept of pivot is dead," Salman Ahmed, Fidelity's global head of macro and strategic asset allocation, told CNBC Pro Monday. Ahmed said that equities would be unlikely to benefit even if the Federal Reserve stops hiking rates at the current level. Investors have moved on to question whether the Fed might be forced to pivot away from historically high rates, and even start cutting next year, given recession risks. "It's now about how long the Fed can keep the policy in a very restrictive stance," Ahmed added. According to Ahmed, government and investment-grade corporate bonds are some of the cheapest asset classes available now that offer risk-free returns.

Iar dolarul ar putea slăbi şi mai mult pe măsură ce administratorii de active acumulează pariuri record pe declinul acestuia, scrie Ziarul Financiar. Unii investitori avertizează că dolarul va trece printr-un ciclu de scădere în condiţiile în care banca centrală americană va menţine dobânzile scăzute ani la rând. Dolarul s-a depreciat în raport cu alte monede importante în şapte din primele 11 luni ale anului, potrivit Bloomberg Dollar Sport Index. Morgan Stanley şi Citigroup anticipează la rândul lor o continuare a declinului dolarului american. Riscul pentru toate aceste previziuni este un eşec în a aduce sub control coronavirusul, scrie The Wall Street Journal.

Persons: Analiştii Goldman Sachs, Julio Callegari, Joe Biden, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Salman Ahmed Organizations: Street Journal, Credit Suisse, Wall Street Journal Locations: australian, canadian, SUA, China

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